Just 60 days prior that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or a cause of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have piled up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have strung together 10 in a row, they look strangely fragile – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
