A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
